Trump Calls The Iran War Nearly Over

Reuters reported on November 9 that LNG traffic through the Strait of Hormuz in October was the highest since the Iran war began. The figure is a physical measure, not a sentiment gauge: it counts liquefied natural gas carriers that actually passed through the passage, and it rising means exporters are routing cargoes through a strait that was disrupted by the conflict.

For markets it tempers one of the worst-case scenarios behind the sell-off earlier in the month. European and Asian buyers compete for the same LNG, so a recovery in flows eases a price that would otherwise feed straight into utility bills and industrial costs. It is one month of data, though, and the strait remains exposed to the fresh attacks near it that FXEmpire flags.

China's goods exports rose 35.2% in October from a year earlier, CNBC reported on November 9, above the 33.5% forecast in a Reuters poll and slightly slower than the 36.3% increase in the prior month. Imports also beat expectations, and the trade surplus narrowed sharply. Stronger imports narrowing the surplus is the more useful detail for trading partners.

A surplus that narrows because purchases rise, not because sales fall, is better for the rest of the world than the reverse. It is also relevant to the Nvidia story: chip export controls are the point at which China's trade policy meets US companies directly. The numbers show an economy shipping goods at a very high rate, which keeps pressure on Western manufacturers and on the tariff arguments that follow.

Raymond James analyst Ed Mills told CNBC that political pushback against data centres means US AI capital spending is likely to peak in 2027-2028, as politicians respond to public sentiment ahead of elections. He still expects economic realities to push them to let projects go forward. Last week's midterm results, in which Democrats took control of Congress, are the backdrop.

Federated Hermes' Martin Schulz offers the counterweight: AI spending may be deferred, but the buildout will not be derailed because it is an existential competition between China and the US. The common ground is a timing delay, not cancellation. For power utilities and industrial suppliers that led Monday's rally, delay is the risk that matters, and permitting fights are where it would show first.

President Trump said on Monday that the FBI is looking into Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, following reports that Huang had an affair with a woman suspected by US intelligence of being a Chinese spy. Nvidia's board is investigating, and the New York Post reports Huang lobbied Trump for relaxed export restrictions weeks after the relationship it describes.

CNBC says Nvidia stock edged higher as pressure mounts. The channel from geopolitics to markets is concrete: Nvidia's $4.3 trillion market cap makes it a heavy weight in index returns, and its China chip sales depend on Washington's export policy. A federal inquiry into the person who lobbied for that policy complicates any future loosening. The allegations are reported, not established.