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Palantir Doubles Revenue, Then Meets Its Multiple
Palantir's third-quarter revenue grew 96% and full-year guidance rose, yet coverage dated November 12 reports the stock fell 5%, even as US commercial sales passed government work.
Palantir Technologies reported third-quarter revenue growth of 96%, according to analysis published November 12, and raised its full-year revenue guidance. It was the thirteenth consecutive quarter in which the company beat estimates. The stock nonetheless fell 5%, per The Motley Fool. The detail that matters sits under the headline rate: US commercial revenue rose 148% and surpassed government revenue, in what the coverage frames as a first. A company long filed as a defence contractor now earns more from private customers in its home market than from Washington.
The data supplied does not say why the shares fell, so the explanation has to come from the price rather than the print. Palantir has a market cap of $397.7B against trailing revenue of $4.5B, and a P/E of 112.7. A beat on every measure we were given, followed by a falling stock, usually means the multiple had already paid for the beat. The Motley Fool's headline makes the same point in fewer words: growth is not enough when the valuation assumes more of it.
The business underneath is unusually healthy by the numbers. Net margin is 36.3%, the Altman Z-score is 118.5, which is to say distress is not a consideration, and the Piotroski score is 7 out of 9. The Street rates it Buy. Software infrastructure sold to commercial clients tends to depend less on appropriations cycles than government work does, which is why the 148% commercial figure carries more weight than the 96% total. The mix shift, more than the headline rate, is what supports a premium multiple.
The skeptical reading begins with the streak. Thirteen straight beats means analysts have learned to model an upside surprise, so the bar the company must clear is the one its own history set. At a P/E of 112.7, even 96% growth must hold for years to justify the entry price. The coverage we hold also gives no margin guidance or customer concentration figures. Alex Karp told an interviewer on November 11 that he is a lifelong Democrat and the products are 'essentially progressive', which reads as positioning for a changed Washington.
What to watch is the market around it, not the filing. Index futures were lower before the open on the Nvidia leadership reports, and the AI trade has been trading as a single factor. Treasury yields rose on Fed rate-hike expectations, and a long-duration multiple like Palantir's is the stock most exposed to them. Whether the 5% decline holds or reverses today will say whether buyers consider the valuation reset complete. The December Fed meeting is the next hard date.
More from the Stocks desk
PayPal Sells Discipline, Not Growth
PayPal reported third-quarter non-GAAP earnings of $1.45 a share, ahead of estimates, while revenue came in slightly below consensus, according to a Seeking Alpha analysis dated November 12. The quality of that earnings beat is the story: profit is outrunning sales. At the KBW Fintech Ecosystem Conference on November 10, the company targeted double-digit EPS growth and laid out how Venmo and its checkout strategy fit that goal, with adjacent revenue in financial services meant to fill the gap.
The company is large and cheap by the standards of its sector. Market cap is $49.4B on revenue of $33.2B, net margin is 15.8%, and the P/E is 11.3. The Street rates it Hold, and the Altman Z-score of 2.0 is unremarkable. A multiple that low says the market treats PayPal as a mature payments utility whose EPS growth comes from buybacks and cost control. Venmo's new lunch-splitting feature, which the press tested on November 10, is a small product aimed at keeping users inside the wallet.
Coursera Cuts Staff After The Udemy Merger
Coursera committed on November 9 to cut about 10% of its global workforce, with expected charges of $14M to $17M, mainly termination benefits that are largely cash. The charges fall in the fourth quarter of 2026 and the first half of 2027, and local-law consultation may stretch the timeline. The company ties the reduction to the Udemy merger it completed on May 11, 2026. Six months after closing, the overlap in staff is being removed, and the filing makes the cost visible.
The charge is about 2% of trailing revenue of $758M, a small price against a 10% headcount reduction. The company still loses money, with a net margin of negative 6.7%, a market cap of $930M, and a share price of $3.67. Two other items from the same week sit beside the layoffs: Coursera adopted a limited-duration stockholder rights plan on November 9, and coverage dated November 7 shows Pale Fire Capital acquiring 2,526,702 shares. The coverage we hold does not link the three events.
Mercer Takes A Prepackaged Trip Through Chapter 11
Mercer International and one non-operating subsidiary filed voluntary Chapter 11 petitions on November 9 in the Southern District of Texas, Houston Division, according to an 8-K filed November 10. The filing is a prepackaged plan, meaning creditors have agreed terms in advance. The operating subsidiaries did not file and will keep running in the ordinary course. The company expects to finish the restructuring by the end of 2026. The structure is designed to keep the cash-generating units out of court.
The mechanism was set on November 6, when supplemental indentures amended the 2028 and 2029 Senior Notes so the filing would not constitute an Event of Default while the Restructuring Support Agreement remains in effect. That is the quiet part of a prepack: noteholders agreed in writing not to treat the bankruptcy as a default. We hold no dossier on Mercer's size or margins, so the equity's position in the plan cannot be assessed here. Readers should read the plan terms before assuming anything about shareholder recovery.
HawkEye 360 Hires A Former CIA Director
HawkEye 360 appointed William J. Burns, CIA Director from 2021 to January 2025, as a Class II director effective immediately, according to an 8-K dated November 10. His compensation is $50,000 in annual cash, a $400,000 initial RSU grant vesting over three years, and a $200,000 annual RSU grant. The filing states no disagreements and no related-party interests, and it gives no reason beyond the appointment itself.
The company is classed as aerospace and defense, carries a market cap of $1.5B, and has a net margin of negative 12.9%. Revenue is not available in our data, and the Street rates it Buy. Putting a former intelligence chief on the board of a loss-making defense contractor is a signal about customers, since government buyers of the company's products know who sits on its board. It is not a signal about earnings. Industrials were the weakest sector in the latest session, down 1.33%, and the stock trades against that backdrop.
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